Donald Trump’s realpolitik could do serious damage to California’s economy, a new report says.
Instigating a trade war with China – something Trump has said he would “love” to do – would cripple the surge in jobs in the state, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a study released Wednesday.
“For California a trade war will reduce the demand for labor. There goes that full employment,” wrote Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist at UCLA who cowrote the report.
California is home to the largest port complex in the nation, at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, which together bring in nearly 40% of all the cargo that arrives by sea to the United States.
California has added jobs faster than the rest of the country for years. By 2017, the unemployment rate in the state will hit 4.9%, according to the report, which is lower than the current 5% rate of joblessness in the nation.
A tight labor market is good for workers, because it gives them leverage to ask for higher pay. When there are fewer workers available for hire, companies have more of an incentive to try to keep the people they have. Californians should expect a raise in the near future, the report said.